Thought Experiment - Antifragile Skills

I initially wanted to name the topic as ‘Antifragile Jobs’, but then realized that skills are omnipresent, jobs are not. A coder will have coding skills irrespective of whether the job exists at a given place & time. Antifragile is a book written by NN Taleb, I am just trying to extend the application of his ideas in some specific hypothetical extreme scenarios. The meaning of the term Antifragile is not the opposite of Fragile, that will be Robust. Antifragile is more than robust. It is something which becomes stronger when exposed to stressors. As Taleb stated the example, every plane crash makes the entire airline industry stronger. How? The analysis of the crash and its reasons gets incorporated in flight safety processes and checks for the entire industry.

Now the thought experiment. Consider that a large scale disaster strikes, natural or man-made. Heavy damage is sustained, both in terms of life and material. Electricity is down and very limited backup is available. The electricity generation and distribution infrastructure have suffered great damage and it might take months/years to rebuild the same. Needless to say, the internet is also down. In such situation, what kind of jobs and skills will sustain relevance and which may not?

The event might act as a big equalizer in the society, blurring the lines between various classes (economic, educational, social and others). Socialism might become the most preferred system, even by those who were previously capitalists and conservatives. With the unavailability of IT and related infrastructure, a lot of dependent professions and fields might become immediately irrelevant. More fundamental and basic professions will continue to exist and thrive. Comparing the scenario with stone-age might not be very apt, considering the relative high difference in population and level of knowledge in the two eras.

Farming, nursing, cooking and physical labor will be the professions which will be in high demand. The entertainment industry will survive but will be more localized and live. Libraries will be back. Politics and religion will occupy the central pillar, even may integrate to a greater extent, giving/generating hope to all for a better future. Professions which follow Lindy Effect will survive.

A coder will have coding skills irrespective of whether the job exists at a given place & time. But he can have many more skills as well. We invest good amount of time and money in getting skills and knowledge to help us in future. In addition, perhaps we can also start learning some basic skills which might be in demand if the outlier Black Swan event occurs.